Down on the war Poll: More troops unhappy with Bush’s course in
Iraq
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Down on the war Poll:
More troops unhappy with Bush’s course in Iraq
By Robert Hodierne
Staff writer
January 8, 2007
Even so, it is perhaps the most representative independent sample possible
because of the inherent challenges in polling service members, according to
polling experts and military sociologists. The American military — once a
staunch supporter of President Bush and the Iraq war — has grown increasingly
pessimistic about chances for victory. For the first time, more troops
disapprove of the president’s handling of the war than approve of it. Barely
one-third of service members approve of the way the president is handling the
war, according to the 2006 Military Times Poll.
When the military was feeling most optimistic about the war — in 2004 — 83
percent of poll respondents thought success in Iraq was likely. This year, that
number has shrunk to 50 percent. Only 35 percent of the military members polled
this year said they approve of the way Bush is handling the war, while 42
percent said they disapproved. The president’s approval rating among the
military is only slightly higher than for the population as a whole.
In 2004, when his popularity peaked, 63 percent of the military approved of
Bush’s handling of the war. While approval of the president’s war leadership has
slumped, his overall approval remains high among the military. Just as
telling, in this year’s poll only 41 percent of the military said the U.S.
should have gone to war in Iraq in the first place, down from 65 percent in
2003.
That closely reflects the beliefs of the general population today — 45 percent
agreed in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll. Professor David Segal,
director of the Center for Research on Military Organization at the University
of Maryland, was not surprised by the changing attitude within
the military. “They’re seeing more casualties and fatalities and less
progress,” Segal said. He added, “Part of what we’re seeing is a recognition
that the intelligence that led to the war was wrong.”
Whatever war plan the president comes up with later this month, it likely will
have the replacement of American troops with Iraqis as its ultimate goal. The
military is not optimistic that will happen soon. Only about one in five service
members said that large numbers of American troops can be replaced within the
next two years. More than one-third think it will take more than five years.
And more than half think the U.S. will have to stay in Iraq more than five years
to achieve its goals. Almost half of those responding think we need more
troops in Iraq than we have there
now. A surprising 13 percent said we should have no troops there. As for
Afghanistan force levels, 39 percent think we need more troops there. But while
they want more troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly three-quarters of the
respondents think today’s military is stretched too thin to be effective.
The mail survey, conducted Nov. 13 through Dec. 22, is the fourth annual gauge
of active-duty military subscribers to the Military Times newspapers. The
results should not be read as representative of the military as a whole; the
survey’s respondents are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be
officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population.
Among the respondents, 66 percent have deployed at least once to Iraq or
Afghanistan.
In the overall active-duty force, according to the Defense Department, that
number is 72 percent. The poll has come to be viewed by some as a
barometer of the professional career
military. It is the only independent poll done on an annual basis. The margin of
error on this
year’s poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points. While approval of
Bush’s handling of the war has plunged, approval for his overall performance as
president remains high at 52 percent.
While that is down from his high of 71 percent in 2004, it is still far above
the approval ratings of the general population, where that number has fallen
into the 30s.While Bush fared well overall,
his political party didn’t. In the three previous polls, nearly 60 percent of
the respondents identified themselves as Republicans, which is about double the
population as a whole. But in
this year’s poll, only 46 percent of the military respondents said they were
Republicans.
However, there was not a big gain in those identifying themselves as Democrats —
a figure that consistently hovers around 16 percent. The big gain came among
people who said they were independents. Similarly, when asked to describe their
political views on a scale from very conservative to very liberal, there was a
slight shift from the conservative end of the spectrum to the middle or moderate
range. Liberals within the military are still a rare breed, with less than 10
percent of respondents describing themselves that way.
Seeing media bias
Segal was not surprised that the military support for the war and the
president’s handling of it
had slumped. He said he believes that military opinion often mirrors that of the
civilian population, even though it might lag in time. He added, “[The military]
will always be more pro-military and pro-war than the civilians. That’s why they
are in this line of work. ”The poll asked, “How do you think each of these
groups view the military?”
Respondents overwhelmingly said civilians have a favorable impression of the
military (86 percent). They even thought politicians look favorably on the
military (57 percent). But they are convinced the media hate them — only 39
percent of military respondents said they think the media have a favorable view
of the troops. The poll also asked if the senior military leadership, Bush,
civilian military leadership and Congress have their best interests at heart.
Almost two-
thirds (63 percent) of those surveyed said the senior military leadership has
the best interests of the troops at heart.
And though they don’t think much of the way he’s handling the war, 48 percent
said the same about Bush. But they take a dim view of civilian military
leadership — only 32 percent said they think it has their best interests at
heart. And only 23 percent think Congress is looking out for them. Despite
concerns early in the war about equipment shortages, 58 percent said they
believe they are supplied with the best possible weapons and equipment.
While Bush always portrays the war in Iraq as part of the larger war on
terrorism, many in the military are not convinced. The respondents were split
evenly — 47 percent both ways — on whether the Iraq war is part of the war on
terrorism. The rest had no opinion. On many questions
in the poll, some respondents said they didn’t have an opinion or declined to
answer.
That number was typically in the 10 percent range. But on questions about
the president and on war strategy, that number reached 20 percent and higher.
Segal said he was surprised the percentage refusing to offer an opinion wasn’t
larger. “There is a strong strain in military culture not to criticize the
commander in chief,” he said. One contentious area of military life in the
past year has been the role religion should play.
Some troops have complained that they feel pressure to attend religious
services. Others have complained that chaplains and superior officers have tried
to convert them. Half of the poll respondents said that at least once a month,
they attend official military gatherings, other than meals and chapel services,
that began with a prayer. But 80 percent said they feel free to practice and
express their religion within the military.
How we did it
On Nov. 13, we mailed questionnaires to 6,000 people drawn at random from our
list of active-duty subscribers. Recipients were asked to mail their answers to
an independent firm that machine-tabulated the results to guarantee anonymity.
We stopped processing incoming questionnaires Dec. 22. About 4,000 of the 6,000
people who received questionnaires turned out to be on active duty.
Only responses from active-duty personnel were tabulated. Of those 4,000, 954
responded. The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 3 percentage
points at the 95 percent confidence interval, meaning there is a 95 percent
probability that results of the poll are accurate within 3 percentage points.
Those polled differ from the military as a whole in important ways.
They tend to be older, higher in rank and more career-oriented. Even so, it is
perhaps the most representative independent sample possible because of the
inherent challenges in polling service members, according to polling experts and
military sociologists. The annual poll has come to be viewed by some as a
barometer of the professional career military.
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Contributed,
YNCS Don Harribine, USN(ret)